I don’t want to sound opportunistic, especially because it was only a friendly, but this Argentina national team does not give me confidence, especially when compared to other top national teams. For me, there are three teams that I can clearly say are above Argentina right now.
The question of Argentina repeating 2022 is not really about recreating the same circumstances from back then, because even that scenario was far from perfect, but about the result: they won the World Cup. I do not believe that will happen again and I’ll explain why. Argentina’s cycle has been decent, but the truth is they have not faced much real top-level competition in South America. More because the others have been weak than because Argentina has been overwhelmingly dominant. Uruguay is no longer what it once was, Brazil went through one of its worst cycles and the rest of the national teams clearly have less individual quality.
And when you actually look at the squad, Argentina is not some absurd super-team. The goalkeeper is between decent and good, and yes, he could “wake up” at a World Cup, but that applies to a lot of keepers. The centre-backs are solid, but I still think Romero is overrated and that Senesi should already have taken another step in his career. As for the full-backs: weak.
In midfield there is quality, yes, but in my opinion it does not come close to teams like Portugal, Spain or England. On the wings, there are interesting players, but also plenty of doubts: Mastantuono has a lot of technical quality, but he is inconsistent, Nicolás González is not even a starter for Atlético Madrid and Simeone brings a lot of effort, but technical quality is not really what stands out in his game.
Up front, you have Julián Álvarez, who, looking at the season as a whole, has not actually been that strong, and then Messi. Maximum respect, but saying he is still one of the best players in the world is a huge stretch. He is not dead weight for Argentina, but he also would not have a place at several top European clubs right now, and that says a lot.
Argentina is not scary. That is the reality. There is quality here and there, but overall I clearly see Spain, France and Portugal ahead of them. And then you still have England, who for me have more individual quality than Argentina. Between the two, I pick England without any doubt.
Does favoritism matter that much? Not really. But it does show a dangerous scenario: if Argentina goes into the World Cup too comfortable because of 2022, they could easily become one of the biggest disappointments. I would not be surprised at all if they did not even make the quarter-finals, especially because so many people are already projecting an Argentina vs Portugal, Messi vs Ronaldo narrative.
Conclusion
Argentina is not in my top three favorites for the next World Cup and, for me, they are a very strong candidate to be the biggest disappointment among the national teams people expect something serious from. They could even be in that conversation with Brazil, but expectations for Argentina are higher. Can Messi still decide games? Yes. But he no longer has the capacity to carry a national team all the way to a final on his own.