The round of 16 is over and the quarter-finals are already around the corner. There are 3 weeks left until the first leg and, even though it’s not a huge gap, it’s already possible to see who arrives in better shape for these matchups. I’m going to say who looks stronger, analyze the round of 16 and give my prediction:
PSG vs Liverpool:
PSG is having a domestic season that has already been better and clearly isn’t at the same technical and collective peak as last season. Even so, that doesn’t make this a weak team and, in my opinion, they are even favorites to win this tie. PSG played a good first leg against Chelsea in the round of 16, with a wider result than the game showed, and had absolute control in the second leg.
Liverpool had to come back in the aggregate against Galatasaray and Arne Slot’s team showed perhaps their best performance of the season. But that doesn’t necessarily mean a turning point or that it will become consistent.
Prediction: PSG eliminates Liverpool
Real Madrid vs Bayern:
Real Madrid played a great game against Man City, especially the first leg, with a Valverde masterclass. In the second leg, they only needed to manage the result, especially in a comfortable scenario where City played with ten men from the 20th minute after a fair red card for Bernardo Silva.
Real goes into these quarter-finals without Courtois and, if he doesn’t play, that weighs heavily and could give Bayern a big advantage.
Bayern is debatably the best team in the world right now, and Bayern at its best is better than any other team at their best. Harry Kane in Ballon d’Or form, Olise incredible, Nicolas Jackson delivering what’s needed… it’s a very complete team. Are the numbers inflated because of the Bundesliga? Maybe. But in the Champions League they’ve also shown clear dominance.
Prediction: Bayern eliminates Real Madrid
Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid:
The hardest to predict, because they are two very inconsistent teams, capable of both their best and worst levels. Barcelona produced a dominant 7-2 at home against Newcastle after drawing and suffering in the first leg. When the team “clicks”, they are very hard to stop.
Atlético Madrid comfortably beat a weak Tottenham, but in the second leg they still managed to lose while playing worse. And that’s Atlético’s duality: they have the quality for more, but only show it when they want.
Prediction: Atlético Madrid eliminates Barcelona
Arsenal vs Sporting:
Arsenal has, on paper, the easiest path to the semi-finals and is probably the most consistent team in the world right now. The best? Not sure. In terms of football played, it’s not very attractive and many non-Arsenal fans probably don’t enjoy watching them, because they take few risks. They beat Bayer Leverkusen comfortably in the second leg and now face a Sporting side that, realistically, in a normal scenario doesn’t stand much of a chance.
Sporting showed a lot of character by turning a 3-0 deficit against Bodo/Glimt into a 5-0 win at home, but there are levels in this game and Arsenal is several tiers above.
Prediction: Arsenal eliminates Sporting
Conclusion
My predictions for the semi-finals are:
PSG vs Bayern and Atlético vs Arsenal