The Real Madrid draw for the Champions League league phase is out and, before my initial prediction, and with a long season ahead, we have to understand that if a club gets 16 points, they pass into the top 8 with almost 100% certainty. If they get 15 points, they have a 73% chance and, from there, things start to get complicated.
With that in mind, Real Madrid have to finish in the top 8, because of what they represent, because they’re the biggest club in the world and because the draw wasn’t actually that bad. There are 4 home games and 4 away games. I’ll start with the home games.
Real Madrid host Inter, PSV, Leipzig and LASK, an Austrian club. I can see some games causing problems, but I say they get at least 9 points, meaning wins against PSV, Leipzig and LASK. Against Inter, it’s more difficult and we have to see what works better: Inter’s collective or Real Madrid’s stars. With that in mind, I say a draw and, therefore, Real Madrid, in my prediction, already have 10 points.
Away from home, they face Arsenal, Roma, Shakhtar and AEK Athens. I also see something relatively comfortable here, but I don’t want to be obvious and I’ll say I see 7 points. Wins against Shakhtar and AEK, a draw against Roma and a defeat against Arsenal.
Real Madrid aren’t as consistent as they should be and I think a slip-up against Roma or against Leipzig or PSV isn’t impossible. The expected result is a win, but reality doesn’t always follow expectations. I don’t think I even need to explain much about the Arsenal game: Arsenal at home are practically impossible to beat.
Conclusion
So, following my prediction, I say Real Madrid will finish the Champions League league phase with 16 points. They won’t finish top of the league, but they’ll be in the top 8.