· 2 min readIn this Belgium vs France match, I analyse the key tactical moments, individual performances and turning points of the game.
Belgium and France came into their second Nations League game with new managers and both having won their opening match. Van Bommel had started with a 0-2 win over Italy, while Zidane had beaten Turkey 0-1 in an unconvincing game. With Mbappé out after the knee injury he suffered in that very match, France still had more quality and came into this one as favourites.
And Zidane immediately surprised everyone with his lineup. He changed nine of the eleven starters, keeping only Lacroix and Maignan, who also took over as captain. Belgium, by contrast, made just two changes.
France started on the front foot and, after 12 minutes, came close to opening the scoring. Doué received the ball on the right, dribbled past three opponents in a tight space and smashed a shot from inside the box. It hit the crossbar. The French winger was clearly in the mood.
Another chance came in the 17th minute. France won the ball high up the pitch, Doué was on the right again, this time with space to cross, and Lepaul hit it first time. The shot was low but too central, although France were starting to create. Belgium had a chance of their own shortly afterwards. De Bruyne found De Ketelaere inside the box after a good combination with Diego Moreira, but the striker failed to make proper contact with the ball.
The game had a really good tempo, and France could even have been awarded a penalty in the 20th minute. Barcola broke forward on the counter, got past his man and Ngyo clearly pushed him from behind. For me, it was a penalty. There was no shoulder-to-shoulder challenge or normal attempt to win the ball, just a push.
France continued to have the better of the game and had a huge sequence of chances in the 27th minute. Lammens saved a free-kick, then saved Lepaul’s follow-up shot, and in the aftermath Kalulu shot with the goalkeeper already out of position. A Belgian defender was there to clear it off the line.
Belgium gradually started to grow into the game. They still hadn’t managed a shot on target by the 38th minute, but France weren’t exactly turning their dominance into clear-cut chances either. De Bruyne had already lost the ball four times, the most of any player, but that also shows how important he is: if Belgium want to create, the ball is inevitably going to go through him.
On the other side, Camavinga was having a really interesting game. He gets plenty of criticism at Real Madrid, but he was winning fouls constantly and had already been fouled five times, more than twice as many as any other player.
At half-time, France had 65% possession and nine shots to Belgium’s five, but only 0.41 xG. It was a game with a good tempo, but there hadn’t exactly been a flood of chances.
The second half started with France on top again. Doué continued to do whatever he wanted, this time using a roulette before shooting just wide of the post. Da Cunha then hit the outside of the post from outside the box, and Doué soon forced another excellent save from Lammens.
By the 60th minute, the feeling was clear: it was almost all France. Plenty of possession, plenty of attacks, but they were missing that final moment. And that started to make the game uglier. France needed to turn 71% possession in the second half into real danger, not just shots from outside the box.
Zidane recognised that and brought on Dembélé, before also introducing Cherki and Olise in the 75th minute. It was time to bring the big players onto the pitch. But Belgium were finally starting to find some space on the counter, and France were losing some of their momentum.
In the 80th minute, De Ketelaere found himself inside the box but his shot was weak and Lacroix managed to block it. The stadium was starting to believe and, honestly, a draw wouldn’t have been outrageous. France had dominated possession, but by the 86th minute they had only 0.97 xG. Belgium had 0.63. This wasn’t exactly complete domination.
But then Olise appeared.
In the 88th minute, France broke forward on the counter. Olise received the ball, drove forward and De Cuyper tried to stop him physically, only to end up on the floor. Olise didn’t care, cut inside and curled the ball into the far corner. 0-1. He’s a very different kind of player. In a game where France struggled to turn possession into real danger, one moment of individual brilliance was enough to decide everything.
Post-match
Belgium tried to respond, but it was already too late. Lukaku didn’t even come on, and France leave with a win that isn’t unfair given how much of the game they controlled, although it was nowhere near as comfortable as 65% possession might suggest.
