Today, I’m going to give my opinion on Kane’s chances of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or, which will be awarded on the 26th. There are 3 criteria, although fair play isn’t really taken seriously. So, there are 2, and in my view, the race for the Ballon d’Or is between Kane, Yamal and Mbappé. I don’t see any other player close to being in the debate.
In terms of numbers, Kane’s season is incredible, the best of any player in the world, with 73 goals and 8 assists. Kane is about more than just goals, but the fact that he has scored 73 is a massive boost. He won the Bundesliga, the DFB-Pokal and the domestic Super Cup, which is clearly respected, but since these are only domestic competitions, they carry less weight, because winning those is the norm for Bayern. It’s not a criticism, it’s a reality: Bayern are far ahead of the others domestically.
Bayern didn’t reach the Champions League final, Kane wasn’t the top scorer in the Champions League, he wasn’t the top scorer at the World Cup and I personally don’t think he had an incredible World Cup. He put up good numbers and saved England, but something was missing. So, individually, his season has been incredible, but collectively, it falls slightly short, for the reasons I’ve explained.
I think not being the top scorer in either the Champions League or the World Cup, with Mbappé being the top scorer in both cases, is something that works against Kane, because, okay, he has scored 73 goals, but Mbappé delivered more goals on the biggest stages.
If I were choosing the winner, I would give the Ballon d’Or to Kane, but we live in a reality where the narrative sells, and Kane’s story isn’t as strong as Yamal’s, who, even with a horrible World Cup, was the winner of the competition. It’s on another level, it’s an achievement that cannot be compared.
The fact is, and this can also apply to Mbappé: the Ballon d’Or isn’t just about goals and it isn’t just about trophies. You can’t look at anything in isolation. It’s everything together, and I think Kane will finish in the top 2.
I don’t feel that Olise winning the Bundesliga Player of the Season award for the 2025/26 season is something that takes anything away from Kane, because I believe that if Kane had won it, it wouldn’t have added much either. These individual awards are, at the very least, questionable, although Olise deserved to win or, at least, be in the conversation.
Conclusion
If I were voting, Kane would be my Ballon d’Or winner. Given how much the narrative matters, and considering the fact that he plays in Germany and hasn’t won either the Champions League or the World Cup, I believe Kane won’t win the Ballon d’Or and will finish in 2nd place.